Business Opportunities for 2011

*Originally posted January 24, 2011

Later this week, I will be taping an episode of "Past Lives, Present Lessons" with Tanya Douglas and Stacy Lupinacci (to be broadcast, February 1 on Z Talk Radio) and, as I usually do twice a year, I will give my "predictions" for what I see in the upcoming year.

Today, I want to focus on business opportunities -- even though I feel there are still a few "issues" yet to be worked out (these likely involve, among others, alterations and possible reductions in current pension programs, as well as some likely fluctuations in the currency market), overall I believe 2011 actually offers many opportunities for positive growth.

I think the tidal wave of conservatism is coming to a close; honestly I do . . . not that those "purists" who hold those views will change but those who only hold them because it is in style to do so -- I think they're about to switch sides. I also think companies with a more service-oriented business model will prosper while those who are strictly "bottom line" are likely to lose market share.

In other words, people want to feel as if you like them and if companies provide a loving happy environment, they are likely to be rewarded. There has been a rather remarkable rhetorical shift in America over the past 10 years and citizens of the United States, hopefully, will soon revert back to a more civil style of speaking with one another, one in which respect matters and bullying and name-calling slows down. This attitude sadly permeates much of our national discourse regarding economics and politics. I believe the "market" for that is fading and the need for more balanced middle of the road action is becoming more pressing.

Businesses will succeed or fail to the extent that they are aligned with predominant values in the market place -- so my statements so far indicate my belief that fundamental expectations about how the markets operate -- and for what purpose -- are also likely to change. My expectation is that more and more people will migrate OUT of major cities and look towards a more agrarian, slower-paced existence. The Go Go years are winding down -- and I think that's good.

Much of the manufacturing base of the United States has eroded and so the demographic model driven by migratory patterns of workers moving towards manufacturing will soon end and, if so, there is every indication that people will start going the other direction. There are a lot of places in America with decent housing opportunities that people will likely see as attractive once it becomes more common to work in virtual worlds.

Big cities often have big problems and fiscal issues in major urban centers are likely to be VERY problematic, very soon.

Businesses likely to show big gains in 2011?

1. Home health care. Medical costs, as we all know, have skyrocketed and as the population ages and hospital space becomes more crowded and more expensive (and, conversely, less effective) the move towards alternative support models will likely increase. Service providers who have competent models in place, with polite workers with at least a minimum standard core competency, (provided they provide a service that is priced correctly), could do very well in the next few years.

Improvements in self-diagnostic tools, both in price and portability, will soon become available and more effective means for online monitoring is, in my opinion, just around the corner.

This means that a booming business, for someone, is also right around the corner. Large hospitals will become more and more the last resort for consumers going forward. Just as the strip mall influenced retail patterns over the past 50 years, so too will the drive for more convenience in seeking medical care cut in to the large downtown department store hospital. People liked the fancy store with all the trimmings better, but it was quicker and easier to go 5 blocks and just pick up a couple of things, unless it was a special occasion or need.

Advances in health care diagnostics -- not necessarily care, itself but rather the ability to quickly diagnose problems -- will revolutionize medicine. More than anything, and this includes ALL other forms of technology, I believe the marriage of the computer with medicine will be the biggest business driver of the next 10 years . . . which makes the fact that I walked away from a career in which I had a very high end expertise in this world perhaps all the sadder :(

but. no matter . . .

Laser therapies will also become more common and more effective over the next couple of years, as well.

2. Transportation and Logistics. Getting things from Point A to Point B -- once fuel prices start climbing (as I predict they will) -- is something that will likely involve more planning and effective utilization of resources than in years past. Companies that can co-ordinate movement, in essence be "motion brokers", also stand to do very well in 2011.

How will this work? As shipping costs become more expensive, providing a service to small companies and individual consumers in which you co-ordinate "bundling" shipments -- so that mid-sized shipments are "volume-priced" and customer service costs for the transport company are diminished -- will also be an area where a better mousetrap will catch more mice.

3. Alternative Energy Sources. Soon, the strangle-hold of oil and gas companies will weaken and more alternative, "green" energy sources will be "in style". Transporting alternative energy sources (see above) will be a big business in the next 15-20 years, I believe, and people with an expertise in "upgrading" existing homes to meet new regulations and take advantage of the options for more "Jetsons" - like technological improvements in the home will also do quite well.

The United States economy has taken a tremendous hit and, on the whole, I believe it will rebound. BUT -- the major players will be different and an entire generation, of which I came along at the tail end, "the Baby Boomers" will find that "the better world" they were given was squandered by their own greed and so the "Golden Years" they imagined may not turn out quite the way they'd like.

Because of that, I expect there to be a pool of intelligent older workers who will continue to be part of the work force for years to come, mainly out of necessity . . . but as things begin to shift upwards, this older work force will actually turn out to be a positive driver towards more economic growth.

4. Facebook, Twitter, Myspace, Billy Bob's Techno-Chat BBQ and Madame Zelda's Virtual Playland -- social networking will be BIG -- until it stops . . . so here is my expectation for Social Networks going forward. The internet has opened up the whole world -- I have clients in Europe and Asia, as well as Canada and the Middle East . . . this couldn't really happen this way WITHOUT the internet.

BUT -- my honest opinion is that local is where it's at and more and more people will soon get off the internet and spend more time interacting with their neighbors . . . what's old is new again.

The internet will change how people get news but it will not, ultimately, change how people interact with one another. I expect a big spike upward, short-term, followed by a gradual decline. Over the next 2-3 years, more and more and MORE money will be poured in to social networking but that trend probably, in the grand scheme of things, won't last that long. In a couple of years, I expect it to slow down -- gradually at first, then quite a bit. People matter -- live, I can see you and touch you people . . . and so I think that need for real people will drive down the rates of growth for social networks.

Part of all this bells and whistles can't have 2 minutes of quiet time attitude is driven, I really do believe, by a desire to "brain wash" the average person . . . slow steady hypnotic pin ball games of the mind . . . that, too, in my opinion, is soon to change.

The good news for 2011? People are smarter than a small group of Harvard-trained bankers think they are and soon, quite soon, the world is going to change. There are hiccups and hurts on our door step. BUT, for me, I believe that soon things will turn around and the world will be a better place.

The chance for catastrophic war is there -- in many ways, a higher probability than ever. Economic ruin -- that possibility is also staring us in the face . . . but I still feel as if the world will shift to a more loving balanced energy and I think the evidence for that shift starts to appear this year.

A companion piece from January 3 "Dot Com Redux"